MRP Forecast Parameters Forecast Models

When a series of consumption values is analysed, certain patterns can usually be detected. From these patterns it is then possible to differentiate between various forecast models:

• constant

• trend

• seasonal

• seasonal trend

A constant consumption flow applies if consumption values vary very little from a stable mean value.

With a trend model, consumption values fall or rise constantly over a long period of time with only occasional deviations.

If periodically recurring peak or low values which differ significantly from a stable mean value are observed, it is a case of a seasonal consumption flow.

A seasonal trend consumption model is characterized by a continual increase or decrease of the mean value.

If none of the above patterns can be detected in a series of past consumption values, then we have an irregular consumption flow.