When a series of consumption values is analysed, certain patterns can usually be detected. From these patterns it is then possible to differentiate between various forecast models:
- constant
- trend
- seasonal
- seasonal trend
A constant consumption flow applies if consumption values vary very little from a stable mean value.
With a trend model, consumption values fall or rise constantly over a long period of time with only occasional deviations.
If periodically recurring peak or low values which differ significantly from a stable mean value are observed, it is a case of a seasonal consumption flow.
A seasonal trend consumption model is characterized by a continual increase or decrease of the mean value.
If none of the above patterns can be detected in a series of past consumption values, then we have an irregular consumption flow.
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